MATH 119 - ELEMENTARY STATISTICS

Email meMATH 119 HOMEHOME

• GAMES / HANDOUTS / VIDEOS

Links will be posted here as the class progresses.

• GREAT BOOK ON FORECASTING AND PREDICTIONS: NATE SILVER’S “THE SIGNAL AND THE NOISE”:

http://www.amazon.com/The-Signal-Noise-Many-Predictions/dp/159420411X/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1368780634&sr=8-1&keywords=the+signal+and+the+noise

• REGRESSION, BILL JAMES, AND MONEYBALL: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WaNDynB9sfo

• CHAPTER 10 WIKIPEDIA LINKS:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correlation (Section 10-2)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regression_to_the_mean (Section 10-3)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coefficient_of_determination (Section 10-4)

• MINITAB “HANDOUT” (CHAPTERS 2, 3, 10) – SCATTERPLOTS AND MIDTERM GRADES

http://www.kkuniyuk.com/Math119MINITAB.pdf

• “r” HANDOUT FOR CORRELATION (SECTION 10-2; WILL BE HANDED OUT IN CLASS): Correlation

• WEB LINKS FOR THURS., 11/29:

JEOPARDY HISTORY! (ACTUALLY, THIS WAS BACK IN 2007)

http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB117581306212561486-fgO4sArlYXxWTSj9UBvenqaNyFs_20080404.html?mod=blogs

(Reminder to instructor: unlock computers!)

The video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gbb7PGREMB4

• SOME GREAT APPLIED STATISTICS: SIMPSON’S PARADOX

Here’s a great article on Simpson’s Paradox, with some great examples of applied statistics:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125970744553071829.html

• “WHAT SHOULD WE CALL GRAD SCHOOL” LINKS (CHAPTER 8)

Warning: Much of this site has bad language!

http://whatshouldwecallgradschool.tumblr.com/post/28797408382/when-my-stats-come-back-insignificant

http://whatshouldwecallgradschool.tumblr.com/post/21848250039/when-im-desperate-to-reach-significance

http://whatshouldwecallgradschool.tumblr.com/post/21525383856/one-sample-away-from-significance

P-value jokes!

http://whatshouldwecallgradschool.tumblr.com/post/32868151147/p

http://whatshouldwecallgradschool.tumblr.com/post/21754626735/p-0-053

http://whatshouldwecallgradschool.tumblr.com/post/28444941491/p-0-06

Just for fun

http://whatshouldwecallgradschool.tumblr.com/post/24959282296/when-my-pi-wants-to-keep-me-in-grad-school-for-another

http://whatshouldwecallgradschool.tumblr.com/post/23481596173/when-there-is-only-one-sandwich-left-at-the-seminar

http://whatshouldwecallgradschool.tumblr.com/post/21499207985/when-i-realized-i-forgot-to-order-the-primers-for

http://whatshouldwecallgradschool.tumblr.com/post/21498991825/how-i-think-my-pi-feels-when-hes-right (PI: Principal Investigator)

2012 ELECTION (CNN)

• 2012 ELECTION: CNN EXIT POLLS WITH JOHN KING

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7igId2dnkds

(the next day; more on demographics): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0IcYThHBfMA

• 2012 ELECTION NIGHT ON CNN: JOHN KING AND THE MAGIC WALL (start 5:47 in)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6U_3jjZvziE

• 2012 COMPLETE RESULTS AND EXIT POLLS – CNN INTERACTIVE

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/main

• 2012 CNN ELECTION NIGHT SUMMARY

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oogFbM8avLg

 

• ELECTION POLLS AND FORECASTING (BY NATE SILVER)

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

• POLLS “HANDOUT” (CHAPTER 7)

Polls (my handout in class: last major revision: Spring 2009)

• BAD CALL: 1996 NH SENATE RACE (SECTION 7-2)

Article on bad Senate race call in 1996: http://www.dartmouth.edu/~chance/course/Syllabi/96Dartmouth/exitpoll.html

• CI APPLET (SECTIONS 7-2/7-3)

Play with the CI applet: http://www.stat.sc.edu/~west/javahtml/ConfidenceInterval.html.

• NORMAL APPROXIMATIONS TO BINOMIALS: APPLET (SECTION 6-6)

New: http://onlinestatbook.com/stat_sim/normal_approx/index.html

Older: http://www.ruf.rice.edu/~lane/stat_sim/binom_demo.html

CLT for Sums, Plinko, Normal Approximations to Bin(n=# drops, p=1/2): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XAuMfxWg6eI

• CLT APPLET (SECTIONS 6-4/6-5)

http://www.stat.sc.edu/~west/javahtml/CLT.html

Fancier: http://onlinestatbook.com/stat_sim/sampling_dist/index.html

• CLT “HANDOUT” (SECTIONS 6-4/6-5)

Central Limit Theorem (CLT)

• MONTY HALL STATS (SECTION 5-3)

http://www.kkuniyuk.com/Math119MontyHallAnalysis.pdf – compare the observed relative frequency distribution with the theoretical (binomial) probability distribution

• FUN WITH PASCAL'S TRIANGLE (SECTION 5-3)

The Beauty of Pascal's Triangle (See Notes 4.12)

The Magic of Pascal's Triangle (Plinko from The Price is Right and Word Jumbles)

See Chaos and Fractals by Peitgen, et al:

QUINCUNX ("PLINKO") APPLETS AND SITES

http://www.jcu.edu/math/isep/Quincunx/Quincunx.html (This applet's better.)

http://www.ms.uky.edu/~mai/java/stat/GaltonMachine.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bean_machine (Wikipedia article)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quincunx (Wikipedia article)

• BINOMIAL HISTOGRAMS (SECTION 5-3)

Binomial Distributions (Produced with Mathematica and Microsoft Word with MathType.)

• YOUTUBE GAME SHOW LINKS

(Reminder to instructor: unlock computers!)

Greed (going for $2.2M!!): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9NWDl21PSY0

Super Greed ($2M question): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zQxCu4Pqp2U&feature=related

• Big risk on Deal or No Deal (a special episode with multiple $1M cases): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MQ40bwT-0fU. Think about the banker’s offers. We’re going to discuss them. If you were the player, what would you have done?

Deal or No Deal - Australia (watch the video, think about “the odds of that …,” and then read the description).
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PEOL0CtQR4I

The Price is Right / Plinko winner (the Plinko board is in the second half): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vuMir11YFPs. What does this have to do with Pascal’s triangle?

GAMES DAY 2:

• COOL "BIRTHDAY PROBLEM" APPLET!! ALSO, THE CHARTS I USED TO FIGURE OUT MY PROBABILITY OF WINNING (?) MY BET.

http://www-stat.stanford.edu/~susan/surprise/Birthday.html

Birthday List (list of probabilities)

Our Sense of Probability (Questions) (questions to think about; given in class) … Our Sense of Probability (Solutions)

The Difficulty of Faking Data (by Theodore P. Hill. Coin runs and Benford's Law - very unexpected!)

If you like to trick or manipulate people, check out my "Great Books" link below (especially Plous)! Click here

GAMES DAY 1:

Coin Flips (Extra Credit) (given in class)

The Monty Hall Problem

Applet: (Play the game with the computer keeping score!)

http://www.stat.sc.edu/~west/javahtml/LetsMakeaDeal.html

Monty Hall Web Sites:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mhlc7peGlGg (complete explanation)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cXqDIFUB7YU&playnext=1&list=PLCCD21CA8C94CE6D6&feature=results_video

(from the movie “21”)

http://www.cut-the-knot.org/hall.shtml (includes variations)

http://www.maa.org/devlin/devlin_07_03.html

(Deep thoughts and interesting perspectives from a renowned mathematics writer.)

http://astro.uchicago.edu/rranch/vkashyap/Misc/mh.html

(Goes deeply into the probability behind this!)

http://www.comedia.com/hot/monty.html

Information on the cognitive psychology we discuss in this class.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases (List of cognitive biases)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amos_Tversky (Tversky was one of my profs.)

• OUR SENSE OF PROBABILITY (CHAPTER 4)

Math119ProbSense.pdf

• LLN “HANDOUT” (SECTION 4-2)

Law of Large Numbers (Produced with Mathematica and Microsoft Word with MathType.)

• THE SAD TALE OF MR. AKIO KASHIWAGI (SECTION 4-2)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Akio_Kashiwagi

• MINITAB “HANDOUT” (CHAPTERS 2, 3, 10)

http://www.kkuniyuk.com/Math119MINITAB.pdf

• HISTOGRAM APPLET (SECTION 2-3)

How Bin (Class) Widths Affect Histograms

http://www.stat.sc.edu/~west/javahtml/Histogram.html

 

Email meMATH 119 HOMEHOME