MATH 119 - ELEMENTARY STATISTICS
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• GAMES / HANDOUTS / VIDEOS
Links will be posted
here as the class progresses.
•
GREAT BOOK ON FORECASTING AND PREDICTIONS: NATE SILVER’S “THE SIGNAL AND THE
NOISE”:
•
REGRESSION, BILL JAMES, AND MONEYBALL:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WaNDynB9sfo
•
CHAPTER 10 WIKIPEDIA LINKS:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correlation
(Section
10-2) …
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regression_to_the_mean
(Section
10-3) …
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coefficient_of_determination
(Section
10-4) …
•
MINITAB “HANDOUT” (CHAPTERS 2, 3, 10) – SCATTERPLOTS AND MIDTERM GRADES
http://www.kkuniyuk.com/Math119MINITAB.pdf
• “r” HANDOUT FOR CORRELATION (SECTION 10-2; WILL BE HANDED OUT
IN CLASS): Correlation
•
WEB LINKS FOR THURS., 11/29:
• JEOPARDY
HISTORY! (ACTUALLY, THIS WAS BACK IN 2007)
(Reminder to instructor: unlock
computers!)
The
video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gbb7PGREMB4
•
SOME GREAT APPLIED STATISTICS: SIMPSON’S PARADOX
Here’s
a great article on Simpson’s Paradox, with some great examples of applied
statistics:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125970744553071829.html
• “WHAT
SHOULD WE CALL GRAD SCHOOL” LINKS (CHAPTER 8)
Warning: Much of this site has bad language!
http://whatshouldwecallgradschool.tumblr.com/post/28797408382/when-my-stats-come-back-insignificant
http://whatshouldwecallgradschool.tumblr.com/post/21525383856/one-sample-away-from-significance
P-value jokes!
http://whatshouldwecallgradschool.tumblr.com/post/32868151147/p
http://whatshouldwecallgradschool.tumblr.com/post/21754626735/p-0-053
http://whatshouldwecallgradschool.tumblr.com/post/28444941491/p-0-06
Just for fun
http://whatshouldwecallgradschool.tumblr.com/post/21498991825/how-i-think-my-pi-feels-when-hes-right
(PI: Principal Investigator)
2012 ELECTION (CNN)
• 2012
ELECTION: CNN EXIT POLLS WITH JOHN KING
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7igId2dnkds
(the next day; more on
demographics): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0IcYThHBfMA
• 2012
ELECTION NIGHT ON CNN: JOHN KING AND THE MAGIC WALL (start 5:47 in)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6U_3jjZvziE
• 2012
COMPLETE RESULTS AND EXIT POLLS – CNN INTERACTIVE
http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/main
• 2012
CNN ELECTION NIGHT SUMMARY
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oogFbM8avLg
•
ELECTION POLLS AND FORECASTING (BY NATE SILVER)
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
• POLLS
“HANDOUT” (CHAPTER 7)
Polls (my handout in class:
last major revision: Spring 2009)
•
BAD CALL: 1996 NH SENATE RACE (SECTION 7-2)
Article on bad
Senate race call in 1996: http://www.dartmouth.edu/~chance/course/Syllabi/96Dartmouth/exitpoll.html
• CI
APPLET (SECTIONS 7-2/7-3)
Play with the CI
applet: http://www.stat.sc.edu/~west/javahtml/ConfidenceInterval.html.
•
NORMAL APPROXIMATIONS TO BINOMIALS: APPLET (SECTION 6-6)
New: http://onlinestatbook.com/stat_sim/normal_approx/index.html
Older: http://www.ruf.rice.edu/~lane/stat_sim/binom_demo.html
CLT for Sums, Plinko, Normal Approximations to Bin(n=#
drops, p=1/2): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XAuMfxWg6eI
• CLT
APPLET (SECTIONS 6-4/6-5)
http://www.stat.sc.edu/~west/javahtml/CLT.html
Fancier: http://onlinestatbook.com/stat_sim/sampling_dist/index.html
• CLT
“HANDOUT” (SECTIONS 6-4/6-5)
Central Limit Theorem
(CLT)
• MONTY
HALL STATS (SECTION 5-3)
http://www.kkuniyuk.com/Math119MontyHallAnalysis.pdf
– compare the observed relative frequency distribution with the
theoretical (binomial) probability distribution
• FUN
WITH PASCAL'S TRIANGLE (SECTION 5-3)
The Beauty of
Pascal's Triangle (See Notes 4.12)
The Magic of Pascal's
Triangle (Plinko from The Price is Right
and Word Jumbles)
See Chaos and
Fractals by Peitgen, et al:
QUINCUNX
("PLINKO") APPLETS AND SITES
http://www.jcu.edu/math/isep/Quincunx/Quincunx.html (This applet's better.)
http://www.ms.uky.edu/~mai/java/stat/GaltonMachine.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bean_machine (Wikipedia article)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quincunx (Wikipedia article)
•
BINOMIAL HISTOGRAMS (SECTION 5-3)
Binomial Distributions
(Produced with Mathematica and Microsoft
Word with MathType.)
•
YOUTUBE GAME SHOW LINKS
(Reminder to instructor: unlock
computers!)
• Greed (going for $2.2M!!): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9NWDl21PSY0
• Super Greed
($2M question): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zQxCu4Pqp2U&feature=related
• Big risk on Deal
or No Deal (a special episode with multiple $1M cases): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MQ40bwT-0fU.
Think about the banker’s offers. We’re going to discuss them. If you were the
player, what would you have done?
• Deal or No
Deal - Australia (watch the video, think about “the odds of that …,” and then read the description).
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PEOL0CtQR4I
• The Price is Right / Plinko winner (the Plinko board is
in the second half): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vuMir11YFPs.
What does this have to do with Pascal’s triangle?
GAMES
DAY 2:
•
COOL "BIRTHDAY PROBLEM" APPLET!! ALSO, THE CHARTS I USED TO FIGURE
OUT MY PROBABILITY OF WINNING (?) MY BET.
http://www-stat.stanford.edu/~susan/surprise/Birthday.html
Birthday List (list
of probabilities)
Our Sense of Probability
(Questions) (questions to think about; given in class) … Our Sense of Probability
(Solutions)
The Difficulty of Faking
Data (by Theodore P. Hill. Coin runs and Benford's
Law - very unexpected!)
If you like to
trick or manipulate people, check out my "Great Books" link below
(especially Plous)! Click here
GAMES
DAY 1:
Coin Flips (Extra Credit)
(given in class)
Applet: (Play the
game with the computer keeping score!)
http://www.stat.sc.edu/~west/javahtml/LetsMakeaDeal.html
Monty Hall Web
Sites:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mhlc7peGlGg
(complete explanation)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cXqDIFUB7YU&playnext=1&list=PLCCD21CA8C94CE6D6&feature=results_video
(from
the movie “21”)
http://www.cut-the-knot.org/hall.shtml
(includes variations)
http://www.maa.org/devlin/devlin_07_03.html
(Deep thoughts and
interesting perspectives from a renowned mathematics writer.)
http://astro.uchicago.edu/rranch/vkashyap/Misc/mh.html
(Goes deeply into
the probability behind this!)
http://www.comedia.com/hot/monty.html
Information on
the cognitive psychology we discuss in this class.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases
(List of cognitive biases)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amos_Tversky
(Tversky was one of my profs.)
• OUR
SENSE OF PROBABILITY (CHAPTER 4)
• LLN
“HANDOUT” (SECTION 4-2)
Law of Large Numbers
(Produced with Mathematica and Microsoft
Word with MathType.)
• THE
SAD TALE OF MR. AKIO KASHIWAGI (SECTION 4-2)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Akio_Kashiwagi
•
MINITAB “HANDOUT” (CHAPTERS 2, 3, 10)
http://www.kkuniyuk.com/Math119MINITAB.pdf
•
HISTOGRAM APPLET (SECTION 2-3)
How Bin (Class)
Widths Affect Histograms
http://www.stat.sc.edu/~west/javahtml/Histogram.html
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me … MATH 119 HOME … HOME