MATH 119 - ELEMENTARY STATISTICS

• GAMES / HANDOUTS / VIDEOS

Links will be posted here as the class progresses.

• GREAT BOOK ON FORECASTING AND PREDICTIONS: NATE SILVER’S “THE SIGNAL AND THE NOISE”:

• REGRESSION, BILL JAMES, AND MONEYBALL:

(Section 10-2)

(Section 10-3)

(Section 10-4)

• MINITAB “HANDOUT” (CHAPTERS 2, 3, 10) – SCATTERPLOTS AND MIDTERM GRADES

• “r” HANDOUT FOR CORRELATION (SECTION 10-2; WILL BE HANDED OUT IN CLASS):

• WEB LINKS FOR THURS., 11/29:

JEOPARDY HISTORY! (ACTUALLY, THIS WAS BACK IN 2007)

(Reminder to instructor: unlock computers!)

• SOME GREAT APPLIED STATISTICS: SIMPSON’S PARADOX

Here’s a great article on Simpson’s Paradox, with some great examples of applied statistics:

Warning: Much of this site has bad language!

P-value jokes!

Just for fun

2012 ELECTION (CNN)

• 2012 ELECTION: CNN EXIT POLLS WITH JOHN KING

(the next day; more on demographics): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0IcYThHBfMA

• 2012 ELECTION NIGHT ON CNN: JOHN KING AND THE MAGIC WALL (start 5:47 in)

• 2012 COMPLETE RESULTS AND EXIT POLLS – CNN INTERACTIVE

• 2012 CNN ELECTION NIGHT SUMMARY

• ELECTION POLLS AND FORECASTING (BY NATE SILVER)

• POLLS “HANDOUT” (CHAPTER 7)

Polls (my handout in class: last major revision: Spring 2009)

• BAD CALL: 1996 NH SENATE RACE (SECTION 7-2)

Article on bad Senate race call in 1996: http://www.dartmouth.edu/~chance/course/Syllabi/96Dartmouth/exitpoll.html

• CI APPLET (SECTIONS 7-2/7-3)

Play with the CI applet: http://www.stat.sc.edu/~west/javahtml/ConfidenceInterval.html.

• NORMAL APPROXIMATIONS TO BINOMIALS: APPLET (SECTION 6-6)

• CLT APPLET (SECTIONS 6-4/6-5)

• CLT “HANDOUT” (SECTIONS 6-4/6-5)

• MONTY HALL STATS (SECTION 5-3)

http://www.kkuniyuk.com/Math119MontyHallAnalysis.pdf – compare the observed relative frequency distribution with the theoretical (binomial) probability distribution

• FUN WITH PASCAL'S TRIANGLE (SECTION 5-3)

The Beauty of Pascal's Triangle (See Notes 4.12)

The Magic of Pascal's Triangle (Plinko from The Price is Right and Word Jumbles)

See Chaos and Fractals by Peitgen, et al:

http://www.jcu.edu/math/isep/Quincunx/Quincunx.html (This applet's better.)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bean_machine (Wikipedia article)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quincunx (Wikipedia article)

• BINOMIAL HISTOGRAMS (SECTION 5-3)

Binomial Distributions (Produced with Mathematica and Microsoft Word with MathType.)

(Reminder to instructor: unlock computers!)

Greed (going for \$2.2M!!):

• Big risk on Deal or No Deal (a special episode with multiple \$1M cases): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MQ40bwT-0fU. Think about the banker’s offers. We’re going to discuss them. If you were the player, what would you have done?

Deal or No Deal - Australia (watch the video, think about “the odds of that …,” and then read the description).

The Price is Right / Plinko winner (the Plinko board is in the second half): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vuMir11YFPs. What does this have to do with Pascal’s triangle?

GAMES DAY 2:

• COOL "BIRTHDAY PROBLEM" APPLET!! ALSO, THE CHARTS I USED TO FIGURE OUT MY PROBABILITY OF WINNING (?) MY BET.

Birthday List (list of probabilities)

Our Sense of Probability (Questions) (questions to think about; given in class) … Our Sense of Probability (Solutions)

The Difficulty of Faking Data (by Theodore P. Hill. Coin runs and Benford's Law - very unexpected!)

If you like to trick or manipulate people, check out my "Great Books" link below (especially Plous)!

GAMES DAY 1:

Coin Flips (Extra Credit) (given in class)

Applet: (Play the game with the computer keeping score!)

Monty Hall Web Sites:

(from the movie “21”)

http://www.cut-the-knot.org/hall.shtml (includes variations)

(Deep thoughts and interesting perspectives from a renowned mathematics writer.)

(Goes deeply into the probability behind this!)

Information on the cognitive psychology we discuss in this class.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases (List of cognitive biases)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amos_Tversky (Tversky was one of my profs.)

• OUR SENSE OF PROBABILITY (CHAPTER 4)

• LLN “HANDOUT” (SECTION 4-2)

Law of Large Numbers (Produced with Mathematica and Microsoft Word with MathType.)

• THE SAD TALE OF MR. AKIO KASHIWAGI (SECTION 4-2)

• MINITAB “HANDOUT” (CHAPTERS 2, 3, 10)

• HISTOGRAM APPLET (SECTION 2-3)

How Bin (Class) Widths Affect Histograms