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MATH 119 – GOODIES FOR PART 2

 

COINS EXTRA CREDIT

http://www.kkuniyuk.com/Math119Coins.pdf

            OR

http://www.kkuniyuk.com/Math119Coins.docx

 

You may use the handout I gave out in class - or if you missed class, the attached .docx or .pdf file.  When turning in your work with your name, you may use another appropriate file that you make.  Make sure NOT to indicate which group you are in - someone else is supposed to figure it out.  

   

If you did not pick a card in class, have random.org flip a coin for you and then follow the instructions on the handout.  Let heads = black card; tails = red card. 

   

Here is a link that will help (especially if you drew a black card in class or got “heads”):   

https://www.random.org/coins/   

   

If that site’s down, try:   

https://justflipacoin.com   

DICE GRID

http://www.kkuniyuk.com/Math119DiceGrid.pdf

VIDEO WITH CARD GRID

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DkE4KEWiDRs

 

OTHER GOODIES – PART 1

What is random?  Great videos!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9rIy0xY99a0




Law of Large Numbers (coin simulations)

http://www.kkuniyuk.com/M119LLNHandout.pdf




Flipping coins

https://www.random.org/coins/

https://justflipacoin.com

http://www.rossmanchance.com/applets/OneProp/OneProp.htm




Dice

https://www.random.org/dice/




Roulette (about Roulette; our videos!)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pYKcPL0N9QQ

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gcy3_HhFbyY

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BJUjRkkM9mQ




Cards (with a fun intro)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DkE4KEWiDRs

https://www.random.org/playing-cards/

 

 

OTHER GOODIES – PART 2

 

Lesson 18: Binomial Probabilities

http://www.kkuniyuk.com/StatisticsBook/v002/5BinomialProbabilities.xlsx

 

 

RANDOMNESS


 

Poisson scatter – Raindrops, Bombing London, Glowworms - life isn’t fair!

https://www.wired.com/2012/12/what-does-randomness-look-like/

 

 




Our Sense of Probability

http://www.kkuniyuk.com/Math119ProbSense.pdf

http://www.kkuniyuk.com/Math119ProbSense2.pdf







Gambler’s Fallacy (related to #1 above)

• Molly’s Game: Harlan: Going full tilt (WARNING: PROFANITY!)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nL18OmsaSQA

 

 

FUN CLASS LINKS FROM LESSON 18 - 

BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTIONS and MONTY HALL





Flipping coins - good examples of binomial distributions!

When you flip 100 fair coins and count heads, you’re sampling from Bin(n=100, p=1/2).

https://www.random.org/coins/

https://justflipacoin.com

http://www.rossmanchance.com/applets/OneProp/OneProp.htm







Monty Hall




D!ng (from class)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TVq2ivVpZgQ




 

In class, we sampled from Bin(n=18, p=2/3).




Play it!  Or have the computer play it (see the "Repeat" line)!  (Rossman/Chance applet)

http://www.rossmanchance.com/applets/MontyHall/Monty04.html







100 doors

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Lb-6rxZxx0




Lots of YouTube links

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=monty+hall+problem




Variations

http://www.cut-the-knot.org/hall.shtml




Monty Hall analysis

http://www.kkuniyuk.com/Math119MontyHallAnalysis.pdf




Monty Hall handout

http://www.kkuniyuk.com/Math119MontyHall.pdf










Plinko / Pascal’s Triangle (theory for the Binomial Formula)




"The Wall" - a more modern version (but no sliding!)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pz2uqymHSvk




http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vuMir11YFPs

https://www.mathsisfun.com/pascals-triangle.html

http://www.kkuniyuk.com/Math119PascalMagic.pdf





 The Beauty of Pascal's Triangle (See Notes 4.12)

The Magic of Pascal's Triangle (Plinko from The Price is Right and Word Jumbles)

See Chaos and Fractals by Peitgen, et al:

QUINCUNX ("PLINKO") APPLETS AND SITES

http://www.jcu.edu/math/isep/Quincunx/Quincunx.html (This applet's better.)

http://www.ms.uky.edu/~mai/java/stat/GaltonMachine.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bean_machine (Wikipedia article)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quincunx (Wikipedia article)

 

Binomial Distribution: Gallery of Binomial Histograms

http://www.kkuniyuk.com/M119BinomialHandout.pdf




• FUN WITH PASCAL'S TRIANGLE (THEORY: BINOMIAL FORMULA)

• BINOMIAL HISTOGRAMS

Binomial Distributions (Produced with Mathematica and Microsoft Word with MathType.)

• YOUTUBE GAME SHOW LINKS

• Greed (going for $2.2M!!): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9NWDl21PSY0

• Super Greed ($2M question): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zQxCu4Pqp2U&feature=related

• Big risk on Deal or No Deal (a special episode with multiple $1M cases): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MQ40bwT-0fU. Think about the banker’s offers. We’re going to discuss them. If you were the player, what would you have done?

• Deal or No Deal - Australia (watch the video, think about “the odds of that …,” and then read the description).
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PEOL0CtQR4I

• The Price is Right / Plinko winner (the Plinko board is in the second half): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vuMir11YFPs. What does this have to do with Pascal’s triangle?

GAMES DAY 2:

• COOL "BIRTHDAY PROBLEM" APPLET!! ALSO, THE CHARTS I USED TO FIGURE OUT MY PROBABILITY OF WINNING (?) MY BET.

Birthday List (list of probabilities)

Our Sense of Probability (Questions) (questions to think about; given in class) … Our Sense of Probability (Solutions)

The Difficulty of Faking Data (by Theodore P. Hill. Coin runs and Benford's Law - very unexpected!)

If you like to trick or manipulate people, check out my "Great Books" link below (especially Plous)! Click here

GAMES DAY 1:

Coin Flips (Extra Credit) (given in class)

The Monty Hall Problem

Applet: (Play the game with the computer keeping score!)

http://www.stat.sc.edu/~west/javahtml/LetsMakeaDeal.html

Monty Hall Web Sites:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mhlc7peGlGg (complete explanation)

http://www.cut-the-knot.org/hall.shtml (includes variations)

http://www.maa.org/devlin/devlin_07_03.html

(Deep thoughts and interesting perspectives from a renowned mathematics writer.)

http://astro.uchicago.edu/rranch/vkashyap/Misc/mh.html

(Goes deeply into the probability behind this!)

http://www.comedia.com/hot/monty.html

• MONTY HALL STATS

http://www.kkuniyuk.com/Math119MontyHallAnalysis.pdf – compare the observed relative frequency distribution with the theoretical (binomial) probability distribution

Information on the cognitive psychology we discuss in this class.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases (List of cognitive biases)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amos_Tversky (Tversky was one of my profs.)

• OUR SENSE OF PROBABILITY

Math119ProbSense.pdf

• THE SAD TALE OF MR. AKIO KASHIWAGI

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Akio_Kashiwagi

 

 

 

GREAT BLOG:

ASK GOOD QUESTIONS

https://askgoodquestions.blog

 

 

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