HOME (all classes)   MATH 119 HOME

Email me (I encourage corrections!)

 

MATH 119 – GOODIES FOR PART 2

 

COINS EXTRA CREDIT

http://www.kkuniyuk.com/Math119Coins.pdf

            OR

http://www.kkuniyuk.com/Math119Coins.docx

 

You may use the handout I gave out in class - or if you missed class, the attached .docx or .pdf file.  When turning in your work with your name, you may use another appropriate file that you make.  Make sure NOT to indicate which group you are in - someone else is supposed to figure it out.  

   

If you did not pick a card in class, have random.org flip a coin for you and then follow the instructions on the handout.  Let heads = black card; tails = red card. 

   

Here is a link that will help (especially if you drew a black card in class or got “heads”):   

https://www.random.org/coins/   

   

If that site’s down, try:   

https://justflipacoin.com   

DICE GRID

http://www.kkuniyuk.com/Math119DiceGrid.pdf

VIDEO WITH CARD GRID

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DkE4KEWiDRs

 

OTHER GOODIES – PART 1

What is random?  Great videos!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9rIy0xY99a0

Law of Large Numbers (coin simulations)

http://www.kkuniyuk.com/M119LLNHandout.pdf

Flipping coins

https://www.random.org/coins/

https://justflipacoin.com

http://www.rossmanchance.com/applets/OneProp/OneProp.htm

Dice

https://www.random.org/dice/

Roulette (about Roulette; our videos!)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pYKcPL0N9QQ

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gcy3_HhFbyY

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BJUjRkkM9mQ

Cards (with a fun intro)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DkE4KEWiDRs

https://www.random.org/playing-cards/

 

 

OTHER GOODIES – PART 2

Lesson 13: Independence and “Casino” (Warning: Profanity!)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JcZHSGyos6g

 

Lesson 14: Conditional Probabilities

• COOL "BIRTHDAY PROBLEM" APPLET!! ALSO, THE CHARTS I USED TO FIGURE OUT MY PROBABILITY OF WINNING (?) MY BET.

https://mste.illinois.edu/activity/birthday/

Birthday List (list of probabilities)

Lesson 16: Expected Value and “Don’t Be a Gambling Addict!”

• THE SAD TALE OF MR. AKIO KASHIWAGI

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Akio_Kashiwagi

Depiction in “Casino”:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ltURKC_V8Hg

 

Article on Kashiwagi (“The Warrior”) and “The Donald”:

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/02/japanese-gambler-donald-trump-213635?o=0

 

• “MOLLY’S GAME”; Harlan: Going full tilt

(WARNING: PROFANITY!)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nL18OmsaSQA

 

Lesson 16: Expected Value and “Deal or No Deal”

• Big risk on Deal or No Deal (a special episode with multiple $1M cases): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MQ40bwT-0fU. Think about the banker’s offers. We’re going to discuss them. If you were the player, what would you have done?

Deal or No Deal - Australia (watch the video, think about “the odds of that …,” and then read the description).
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PEOL0CtQR4I

Lesson 17: Counting

• “GREED” GAME SHOW LINKS:

Greed (going for $2.2M!!): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9NWDl21PSY0

Super Greed ($2M question): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zQxCu4Pqp2U&feature=related

 

 

Lesson 18: Binomial Probabilities (Excel)

http://www.kkuniyuk.com/StatisticsBook/v002/5BinomialProbabilities.xlsx

 

 

 

FUN CLASS LINKS FROM LESSON 18 - 

BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTIONS and MONTY HALL

Flipping coins - good examples of binomial distributions!

When you flip 100 fair coins and count heads, you’re sampling from Bin(n=100, p=1/2).

https://www.random.org/coins/

https://justflipacoin.com

http://www.rossmanchance.com/applets/OneProp/OneProp.htm

Monty Hall (3-Door) problem

D!ng (from class)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TVq2ivVpZgQ

 

In class, we sampled from Bin(n=18, p=2/3).

Play it!  Or have the computer play it (see the "Repeat" line)!  (Rossman/Chance applet)

http://www.rossmanchance.com/applets/MontyHall/Monty04.html

100 doors

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Lb-6rxZxx0

Lots of YouTube links

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=monty+hall+problem

Variations

http://www.cut-the-knot.org/hall.shtml

Monty Hall analysis

http://www.kkuniyuk.com/Math119MontyHallAnalysis.pdf

Compare the observed relative frequency distribution with the theoretical (binomial) probability distribution.

http://www.rossmanchance.com/applets/OneProp/OneProp.htm

Use 0.67 for p.

 

Monty Hall handout

http://www.kkuniyuk.com/Math119MontyHall.pdf

Monty Hall distribution (Excel)

5 (More): Probabilities for Binomial Distributions (Monty Hall)

OR http://www.kkuniyuk.com/StatisticsBook/v002/5MontyHall.xlsx

 

 

Explaining Monty Hall

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mhlc7peGlGg (complete explanation)

http://www.cut-the-knot.org/hall.shtml (includes variations)

http://www.maa.org/devlin/devlin_07_03.html

(Deep thoughts and interesting perspectives from a renowned mathematics writer.)

http://astro.uchicago.edu/rranch/vkashyap/Misc/mh.html

(Goes deeply into the probability behind this!)

http://www.comedia.com/hot/monty.html

 

Plinko / Pascal’s Triangle (theory for the Binomial Formula)

"The Wall" - a more modern version (but no sliding!)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pz2uqymHSvk

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vuMir11YFPs

https://www.mathsisfun.com/pascals-triangle.html

http://www.kkuniyuk.com/Math119PascalMagic.pdf

The Beauty of Pascal's Triangle

https://www.mathsisfun.com/pascals-triangle.html

The Magic of Pascal's Triangle (Plinko from The Price is Right and Word Jumbles)

The Price is Right / Plinko winner (the Plinko board is in the second half): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vuMir11YFPs. What does this have to do with Pascal’s triangle?

See Chaos and Fractals by Peitgen, et al:

QUINCUNX ("PLINKO") APPLETS AND SITES

Play with this!  Let n = Size = # of questions.

Each ball corresponds to a student.

Each drop corresponds to a question.

Move Right = get the question “right” from random guessing.

Move Left = get the question wrong from random guessing.

Left/Right corresponds to q and p.  For an A, B, C multiple-choice test, use Left = 67%, Right = 33%.

Bottom axis = # of questions correct.

#s on bars = frequencies (#s of students).

https://www.mathsisfun.com/data/quincunx.html

 

http://www.jcu.edu/math/isep/Quincunx/Quincunx.html

http://www.ms.uky.edu/~mai/java/stat/GaltonMachine.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bean_machine (Wikipedia article)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quincunx (Wikipedia article)

 

Binomial Distribution: Gallery of Binomial Histograms

http://www.kkuniyuk.com/M119BinomialHandout.pdf

• FUN WITH PASCAL'S TRIANGLE (THEORY: BINOMIAL FORMULA)

• BINOMIAL HISTOGRAMS

Binomial Distributions (Produced with Mathematica and Microsoft Word with MathType.)

 

RANDOMNESS

 

Poisson scatter – Raindrops, Bombing London, Glowworms - life isn’t fair!

https://www.wired.com/2012/12/what-does-randomness-look-like/

Our Sense of Probability

http://www.kkuniyuk.com/Math119ProbSense.pdf

http://www.kkuniyuk.com/Math119ProbSense2.pdf

The Difficulty of Faking Data (by Theodore P. Hill. Coin runs and Benford's Law - very unexpected!)

If you like to trick or manipulate people, check out my "Great Books" link below (especially Plous)! Click here

Information on the cognitive psychology we discuss in this class.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases (List of cognitive biases)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amos_Tversky (Tversky was one of my profs.)

Gambler’s Fallacy (related to #1 in “Sense”)

 

• “MOLLY’S GAME”; Harlan: Going full tilt

(WARNING: PROFANITY!)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nL18OmsaSQA

 

 

 

GREAT BLOG:

ASK GOOD QUESTIONS

https://askgoodquestions.blog

 

 

HOME (all classes)   MATH 119 HOME

Email me (I encourage corrections!)